MLB Picks & Predictions for July 5: Can Skenes Rack Up Ks Against Mets? Will Glasnow Bounce Back?
by Matt McEwan in MLB Baseball
Updated Jul 11, 2024 · 11:53 AM PDT
Jun 22, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow (31) walks to the dugout during the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY SportsAll 30 MLB teams are in action Friday, July 5Many household names take the mound today, including Paul Skenes, Tyler Glasnow, Max Fried, and Sonny GrayHave a look at my favorite MLB picks for the day below
With 15 MLB games on today’s slate, there are a lot of MLB betting lines available. If you don’t have the time to dive into them all, or just want a quick pick, I’ve got you covered! I have been crunching numbers, both the lines and stats, since last night, and have a handful of MLB bets I am making today.
I will also provide my opinion on some of the bigger names taking the mound today, as well as the matchups, to help you navigate whether you want to bet the likes of Paul Skenes, Tyler Glasnow, and Pablo Lopez among others. If you want a more in-depth preview of two of today’s bigger games, SBD has focused articles on Angels vs Cubs picks and Red Sox vs Yankees predictions. I won’t go too deep into those games here, since we already have.
Below you’ll find my favorite strikeout prop, player to hit a home run, underdog to bet on the moneyline, totals (over/under) bet, and parlay.
MLB Picks for Today (Friday, July 5)
I have broken the picks down into a handful of sections focusing on each type of MLB bet. First up is strikeout props!
Best Strikeout Props to Bet Today
Tyler Glasnow 8+ Ks (-104 at FanDuel)
If you clicked through the Red Sox vs Yankees preview above, you’ll see that I also love Nester Cortes over 5.5 Ks. However, that line has moved pretty significantly since locking that bet in last night, and I don’t want to give you a bet with a line that no longer exists. Thankfully, I also love Tyler Glasnow to go over 7.5 Ks.
The Dodgers’ RHP is fresh off his worst start of the season, giving up five earned runs on seven hits over just three innings. It was a disaster. But that’s part of why I like him so much tonight. Glasnow is a big bounce back guy. Though he hasn’t had an outing that bad this season, he did give up five earned runs to the Yankees on June 9 and six to the Nationals on April 15. In his next starts following those two games, he struckout nine Royals, who have K’d the third-fewest times in the league this year, and ten Mets, who have K’d the ninth-fewest times in the MLB.
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We saw the same thing from Glasnow last year as a Ray as well. The Orioles beat him up twice and he came back the next games to get 12 and seven (Blue Jays, who didn’t K last year) strikeouts, respectively.
Tonight he gets a Brewers squad who has struckout the 11th-most in the league and get fanned by righties in 25.4% of their ABs. Glasnow has also fared well against some of the Brewers’ bats, striking out Christian Yelich in four of their six meetings, Jake Bauers in two of their three meetings, and got William Contreras swinging in their only meeting. Rhys Hoskins is the only matchup in Milwaukee’s favor, as the 1B has hits in two of three ABs against Glasnow.
Just as important as the bets I am making are the ones I am not. There are a lot of strikeout pitchers taking the mound today, but I don’t like the matchup for most of them. Let me run you through what I’m doing with these guys, including my guy Paul Skenes, who I have bet to go over his Ks in each game so far:
Paul Skenes (vs Mets): Though the Mets have not been very good against righties this season (.241 average), they don’t strikeout much. The Mets are 22nd in batter strikeouts this season and only go down swinging 23.3% of the time vs RHP. Though Skenes has recorded at least eight strikeouts in six of his nine starts, most of those teams were strikeout teams. For the first time this season, I’m laying off Skenes Ks. If you’re looking for a way to bet the rookie, I’d look to his outs recorded, which still haven’t opened yet.Sonny Gray (at Nationals): Washington has struckout the sixth-fewest times in the Majors this season.Pablo Lopez (vs Astros): Lopez is a guy who has taken advantage of K teams this season to run up his total. The Astros don’t strikeout. They’re last in the league in Ks. While Lopez did manage to get six Astros back on May 31, I don’t trust him to do it again in their second meeting.Cole Ragans (at Rockies): Colorado is a team I have picked on all season with K props, but I’m not doing it tonight. The Rockies hit better at home and most of Ragans’ strikeouts have come at home too.
If you’re looking for a ladder guy tonight, go ahead and call me crazy, but I think it’s Kevin Gausman. The Jays pitcher has been dreadful this season, and he has yet to show any great signs of turning things around. However, the Mariners love striking out. Toronto does not want to go to its bullpen and we have seen Gausman take advantage of another K team in Oakland a month ago, recording 10 Ks over a complete game. He has handled this Mariners lineup pretty well in the past and you can get 10+ Ks at +520 on FanDuel.
Best Players to Bet to Hit a Home Run Today
There are a handful of home run pitchers to target today, including Pablo Lopez (1.63 HR/9), Randy Vasquez (1.76 HR/9), Slade Cecconi (1.89 HR/9), and Aaron Civale (1.66 HR/9).
Yordan Alvarez (+375 at bet365)
Alvarez is hitting .375 in eight ABs against Lopez and is swinging a red hot bat right now.
Joc Pederson (+425 at BetMGM)
I wouldn’t blame you for betting Christian Walker in this matchup instead, but I prefer Joc Pederson. Lefties are hitting .449 with a 1.174 OPS against Randy Vasquez this season. Pederson is 0-3 against Vasquez in his career, but I think that ends tonight.
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Kyle Higashioka (+675 at BetMGM)
Slade Cecconi has been getting hit harder by righties this season and Higashioka loves hitting at home. The Padres catcher has seven home runs in just 48 ABs at home this season.
Shohei Ohtani (+250 at FanDuel)
Aaron Civale is preparing to make his Brewers debut tonight. The former Tampa Bay Ray has been allowing lefties to hit .286 off him this season, and Shohei Ohtani loves facing RHP. Ohtani is hitting .329 against righties and 21 of his 27 HRs this season have come when facing RHP.
Best MLB Underdog to Bet on the Moneyline Today
Houston Astros ML (+135 at BetMGM)
I appreciate the pitching matchup being firmly in Minnesota’s favor here with Pablo Lopez going against Shawn Dubin / Houston’s bullpen. However, a handful of Astros have fared pretty well against Lopez. There are four Houston hitters averaging .300 or better against Lopez, including Jeremy Pena (.600), Yordan Alvarez (.375), Jake Meyers (.333), and Jose Altuve (.300).
I’ll gladly take plus-money on a team who is 12-2 in their last 14 games.
Best MLB Totals Bet for Today
Diamondbacks vs Padres Over 8.5 Runs (+100 at bet365)
I already mentioned both of these pitchers in the home run props section above, but only discussed their love for giving up the long ball. Slade Cecconi carries a 5.81 ERA into this one and Randy Vasquez isn’t much better at 4.88.
We saw this exact matchup a month ago and it only totaled seven runs, but that’s because the bullpens did such a great job patching things up. I like the bats to make even more noise against these two pitchers this time around.
Best MLB Parlay to Bet Today
Rob Refsnyder, Austin Riley, Nick Castellanos & Treat Turner all to record a hit
All four of these players have enjoyed a lot of success against the pitchers they’ll see today. Castellanos averages .643 in 14 ABs versus Max Fried, Refsnyder averages .600 in ten ABs versus Nester Cortes, Treat Turner hits .385 in 39 ABs against Fried, and Riley hits .367 in 60 ABs against Aaron Nola. Three of those batters have a lot of familiarity against their opposing pitcher today, and I don’t foresee any of them getting the hook early.
Thankfully, this parlay also qualifies for DraftKings’ MLB parlay boost today. Be sure to check out all the daily odds boosts and all-user bonuses available before locking in your bets!
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