Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 9
by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football
Updated Nov 4, 2023 · 2:14 PM PDT
Oct 29, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) celebrates with wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) after scoring a touchdown against Washington Commanders during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY SportsWe have Week 9 NFL ATS picks from six different games for Sunday and MondayAre the Chiefs the play in Germany? Will the Saints offense roll over the Bears?Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here
We’re right at the halfway mark of the NFL regular season so there’s no better time to turn around some of these NFL picks against the spread than right now. One of our experts will win as we have picks on both the Cowboys and Eagles. If the Chiefs and Saints can cover we’ll also be looking good with four combined picks on those teams. Read on for our full analysis of this week’s top NFL ATS picks here.
NFL Expert Picks Today
| Ryan Metivier | Bob Duff | Zach Reger |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs (-2) | Chiefs (-2) | Seahawks (+6) |
| Saints (-8.5) | Saints (-8.5) | Eagles (-3) |
| Bengals (-2) | Cowboys (+3) | Jets (+3.5) |
| Record: 6-16-2 | Record: 7-16-1 | Record: 11-12-1 |
This week’s NFL picks against the spread cover six different games with multiple picks on the Saints and Chiefs and two SBD experts going head-to-head in the NFC East matchup between Dallas and Philadelphia.
Before making your Week 9 picks against the spread, be sure to sign up at one of the best NFL betting apps to claim your new customer bonus for Week 9.
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Ryan Metivier
Chiefs (-2)
The last time the Dolphins beat a team with a winning record was way back in Week 3 against Buffalo … last season. This season, they’ve beaten up on bad teams six times. The combined record of those teams is 11-27. When they faced the Bills and Eagles, they’ve lost and lost badly, 48-20 and 31-17.
The Fins could also struggle to contain Travis Kelce seeing that they’ve struggled to defend TEs all season giving up the second-most catches and fifth-most yards. But Miami is still the league’s top offensive team by a wide margin and Tyreek Hill will surely be motivated to have a big game versus his old team. And the Chiefs offense hasn’t looked great. They just lost 24-9 in Denver last week.
It’s just that Justin Herbert, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have combined to score an average of 38.33 points against this Miami defense. Patrick Mahome is every bit as capable as that group. And, he is 16-3 SU following a loss and is currently riding an 8-0 streak after a loss as well. I haven’t seen Miami beat a winning team in over a year, so I just have to side with KC for my Week 9 ATS picks.
Saints (-8.5)
I just think this is a great matchup for the Saints this week. Had it been earlier in the year, perhaps I’d be feeling differently. That’s because earlier in the year New Orleans’ offense looked inept and Derek Carr seemed to be struggling to click with his new teammates.
But in the last two weeks the Saints offense has put up 407 yards of offense and 24 points and then 511 yards of offense and 38 points. Carr threw for 310 yards and two touchdowns last week versus a Colts’ defense ranked 25th in passing yards allowed. Well the Bears are every bit as bad as the Colts and are in fact a fair bit amount worse, ranking 30th.
We just saw them give up 30 points to the Chargers on SNF in a 30-13 loss, with Justin Herbert throwing for 298 yard and three scores. Tyson Bagent also failed to take advantage of an LA defense ranked dead-last in passing defense. It’s hard to see him fairing any better versus the Saints’ seventh-ranked unit here. Saints in a blowout for my Week 9 NFL picks against the spread.
Bengals (-2)
Cincinnati have now won three straight with Joe Burrow slowly rounding into form after a preseason calf injury. They’re also on a 3-0 ATS run.
The Bengals have been money in this spot since 2022. As home favorites they are 8-2 ATS. That extends back to 2021 as well where they are 12-4.
The Bills may be 5-3 on the year but they’ve just 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS in their past four.
Historically these teams have split the last four meetings, but Cincy is 5-2 in the last seven. The Bengals won the last meeting in the postseason last year 27-10 in Buffalo.
Joe Burrow is 4-0 at home in night games. He’ll make it 5-0 on Sunday.
Bob Duff
Chiefs (-2)
Mahomes was battling illness last week as the Chiefs were being upset by the Broncos. His eight straight wins in the game immediately following a loss is the longest active streak of any NFL QB.
Miami’s offense is paced by QB Tua Tagovailoa, favored over Mahomes at most NFL betting sites in the NFL MVP odds, and former Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. The unit is putting up massive numbers – except when the Dolphins play good teams. Against Buffalo and Philadelphia, Miami lost by an average margin of 21 points.
Those anticipating a bounce back performance from the Chiefs after their surprising 24-9 loss to the Broncos may be on to something 👀
Patrick Mahomes is 16-3 SU after a loss since becoming starter ✍️
The Chiefs are 2.5-point favs over the Dolphins.pic.twitter.com/763FZq3ZLn
— BestOdds.com (@BestOddsBets) November 1, 2023
Saints (-8.5)
The Saints have found their game. Over the past four games they are averaging 27.3 points per game. QB Derek Carr has passed for more than 300 yards in three straight games. His passer rating last Sunday was 133.3.
Contrast that to a Bears team that is 2-5-1 ATS. Chicago is allowing the third-most sacks (28) and has committed the fourth-most turnovers (13) in the NFL this season.
Cowboys (+3)
At 7-1 SU, the Eagles are the #1 team in the NFL. But Philadelphia is just 4-2-2 ATS. Dallas is 5-2 ATS and straight up.
In his three straight victories over Philly, Prescott has thrown for 11 TDs against one interception. During that one win in head-to-head competition against Hurts, Dak finished with a passer rating of 143.3.
Best NFL Parlays and Teasers for Week 9Read More
Zach Reger
Seahawks (+6)
Seattle has won five of their last six games and now travels on the road to Baltimore. The Ravens have looked great this season, but outside of the Detroit victory, they have played in a lot of close games. I expect this one to follow suit.
This is also a lookahead spot for the Ravens. On deck, they face their AFC North rivals in the Browns and Bengals. Baltimore should win this game, but I like getting six points with the Seahawks and their defense.
Eagles (-3)
The Cowboys are coming off debatably their best win of the season in their rout against the Rams. Dallas is riding high, but I expect them to come back down to earth on the road against their division foe.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have struggled against teams with winning records, and Philadelphia is 7-1 on the season. Give me the better quarterback at home.
The Eagles are getting it done by any means necessary.
via @NFL | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/jeAfPznxEX
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 3, 2023
Jets (+3.5)
The Jets squeezed out a win in a weird game against the Giants last Sunday. They now play on Monday Night Football against the Chargers who did not have to break a sweat against the Bears last week. The Jets defense is for real, and I expect them to have a good game plan in place against the Chargers.
Outside of last Sunday night, the Chargers have not looked impressive. They have been in a lot of close games and have lost many of those thanks to Brandon Staley’s decision-making. I love getting more than three points with a home team that has the better defense and coach. It also helps that it is a primetime game.
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