Charles Schwab Challenge Odds, Picks, Predictions & Best Bets 2024

May 28, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Scottie Scheffler watches his shot from the second tee during the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY SportsFresh off an arrest and a T8 at the PGA Championship, Scottie Scheffler is the heavy favorite at the 2024 Charles Schwab ChallengeCollin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, and Max Homa are seen as Scheffler’s primary competitorsSee the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge odds to win, top-10 finish, and H2H picks

Finishing tied for eighth at a major is rarely something to sneer at, but when you’re playing as well as world #1 Scottie Scheffler – and when you also got arrested during the proceedings – it makes for a week to forget.

Scheffler is right back in action this week at the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, against a solid field of opponents.

The table below shows the odds to win the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge for the top-30 favorites, plus top-five and top-ten finish odds.

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

Scheffler is listed at a hyper-short +275, which carries an implied win probability of 26.67%. In other words, he has to win the tournament more than one out of every four times to have positive expected value (+EV) at that price.

Second-favorite Morikawa is at just +1400, which has an implied win probability of just 6.67%. Indeed, if you add up the implied win probability of the next six players on the board (down to Sungjae Im), you would only get to 24.57%. Put another way, the odds imply that Scheffler has a better chance to win the tournament than second though seventh-favorite combined. 

Scheffler’s Dominance Put on Hold

Scheffler entered the PGA Championship with four wins in five starts – with the fifth being a T2 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. The two-time Masters-winner looked poised for a run at his third major title after two rounds, sitting just three back of the lead heading into the third round. But round three started with two bogeys and a double-bogey in his first four holes and he never recovered, carding a two-over 73 and falling eight off the lead. He bounced back with a six-under 65 on Sunday to move into eighth but he never threatened the leaders in round four.

In what felt like an April Fools joke, Scheffler was arrested trying to drive into the Valhalla parking lot ahead of Friday’s second round. Scheffler was charged with second-degree assault and reckless driving after allegedly disobeying instructions from officers, who had blocked off certain areas following a fatality.

Scheffler (2.851) still has a massive lead in Strokes Gained this season, even though second-ranked Xander Schauffele (1.990) won the PGA. Scheffler is first in three of the five Strokes Gained categories tracked by the PGA (Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green, and Approach the Green) and is fifth in Around the Green. SG: Putting continues to be the only area where he’s not top five, sitting a distant 97th.

Scheffler has a solid history at Colonial Country Club, which is just half an hour from his hometown of Dallas. He finished T3 here last year at -7 and lost in a playoff to Sam Burns in the 2022 edition at -9.

Morikawa Reeling After Poor Finish

Second-favorite and two-time major winner Collin Morikawa was tied for the lead with eventual winner Schauffele heading into the final round of the PGA Championship on Sunday, but he didn’t record a single birdie until the 18th hole and finished T4 at -15, six shots back.

Morikawa hasn’t won on tour this season and he sits just 59th in overall Strokes Gained but the PGA was his fourth straight top-20 finish and moved him back into the top 10 of the OWGR.

Morikawa’s results at Colonial have been trending in the wrong direction. In his first start at the Charles Schwab in 2020, he lost in a playoff to Daniel Berger in 2020. He was T14 in 2021, T40 in 2022, and T29 in 2023.

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Charles Schwab Challenge Picks & Predictions

Unless Scheffler’s arrest is going to have more of a lasting impact than it appears at first glance, I do actually like his odds to finish in the top five at -125. The 27-year-old is head-and-shoulders above his competition right now. The chances that someone in the field will put together a magical week and win the trophy are significant enough that I don’t want to bet Scheffler to win at +275, but the chances that five golfers outduel him on a course he clearly loves are not high.

Another golfer I’m targeting is last year’s winner Emiliano Grillo. The Argentinian is listed at +165 to be the top South American, up against an uninspiring field of Alejandro Tosti, Nico Echavarria, and Camilo Villegas. Grillo isn’t having a great season, but at #54 in the OWGR, he is 52 spots higher than any of his South American competitors. He also ranks highest in Strokes Gained this year among the quartet, at least 31 spots better than the other three.

Scheffler top-five finish (-125)Grillo top South American (+165)

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