Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers Public Betting Splits for Money Night Football
by Eric Rosales in NFL Football
Updated Sep 18, 2023 · 9:33 AM PDT
Sep 10, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) celebrates after scoring a two point conversion during the second half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY SportsIn NFL public betting, the spread splits are backing the visiting Browns over the Steelers on Monday Night FootballThe moneyline splits are overwhelmingly leaning towards ClevelandThe people are dividing the action in the Browns vs Steelers public betting splits on the total of 38 points
It’s early, but there’s already a stress point in the AFC North, as the Cleveland Browns try to move to 2-0 on the year, while sending the Pittsburgh Steelers to an 0-2 start.
The NFL public betting trends show the Browns are the public’s pick on Monday Night Football, as the teams battle at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA at 8:15pm ET. The game will be live on ABC and ESPN+.
After Sunday games in Week 1, the Browns vs Steelers odds had the spread as low as 1.5 points to as high as 2.5 points, before settling at the current 2-point spread in favor of Cleveland.
It’s an avalanche on the moneyline, where almost every dime is being laid on the visitors. There’s only division when it comes to the total of 38 points — among the lowest lines of week 2 — where you see some variance in betting.
Let’s take a closer look at the NFL public betting for this all-AFC North showdown, with ps gathered early Monday morning (1am ET).
Browns vs Steelers Betting Percentages
| Team | Spread | ATS Handle% | ATS Bet% | Total Points | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | -2 | 59% | 58% | 38 | 36% | 62% | -135 | 95% | 75% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +2 | 41% | 42% | 38 | 64% | 38% | +114 | 5% | 25% |
The Browns have been pegged as -135 favorites on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 57.45%. A whopping 95% of the money is on them, with 75% of the bets laid on Cleveland.
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Public Betting Nearly All-In for Browns on Moneyline
For a team that has lost six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the public seems wildly sure the Browns will come away with the win over Pittsburgh, and move to 2-0 for the first time since the franchise returned to the NFL in 1999.
The fact that Cleveland hasn’t been 2-0 sine the 1993 season, and that they’ve lost 23 of their last 25 games at Pittsburgh hasn’t stopped 75% of the bets and 95% of the money go to the Browns.
Damontae Kazee and Levi Wallace both had INTs against Deshaun Watson in week 17 last season. The Steelers beat the Browns 28-14 in that game. I can't wait to watch Deshaun Watson throw more picks to Steelers DBs on MNF. pic.twitter.com/vD1WlPptqb
— Billy Hartford (@BudDupreeFan) September 16, 2023
This will be just the second time Browns pivot Deshaun Watson will face the Steelers since being acquired from Houston. In the Week 18 finale, Watson went 19-for-29 for 230 yards with two TD passes and two interceptions, as the Browns fell 28-14.
Watson was under siege almost all contest, getting sacked seven times, part of 10 total QB hits taken that day. He had a slow start in Cleveland’s 24-3 win over Cincinnati in Week 1.
It’s something to keep in mind when considering the Browns vs Steelers props. As Watson threw for 151 yards with a TD and interception under soggy conditions, Nick Chubb ran for 106 yards on 18 carries, part of a 206-yard rushing day from the Browns.
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Betting Percentages on Spread Favor Cleveland
While not as overwhelming as Cleveland winning straight up, the betting public still favors the Browns to cover the two points in the NFL spreads.
A hefty 58% of the bets and 59% of the handle are on the Browns, which goes against recent trends. In the last 10 head-to-head matchups, the Steelers are 7-3 against the spread.
The Steelers have also won five of the last six matchups at home, with Cleveland’s lone win being the 2020 Wildcard matchup, a wild 48-37 win.
Pickett to Pickens! 🙌 #HereWeGo
📺: #CLEvsPIT on CBS📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/Qlv0a3sHpm pic.twitter.com/82j7qkRNN4
— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2023
Plenty has changed over since that game, including the starting QBs. Gone are Baker Mayfield (now with Tampa) and the retired Ben Roethlisberger. Still, minus that playoff game, the Browns are just 0-5 ATS in their last five at Acrisure.
These teams were on different ends of the betting spectrum last week. The Browns covered as 1-point favorites in a blowout over the Bengals, while the Steelers were thumped 30-7 by the 49ers, with San Fran easily covering that 1-point spread.
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Finally, the total market in the Browns vs Steelers public betting has 62% of bets picking the over, but just 36% of the money is coming in on those wagers.
Conversely, 64% of the money being wagered is on the under, coming off just 38% of the tickets.
It’s likely last season has some sway here: Pittsburgh was a bottom-10 scoring unit a year ago, putting up just 18.1 points per game, good for a tie for 6th-worst. Not surprisingly, the Steelers went under in 10 of 17 games in 2022.
The Browns weren’t much better, hanging just 21.2 points per contest last year, good for 19th best in the league. They were 8-8-1 in over/unders last year.
The two teams have hit the over and under five times each in their last 10 meetings.
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