Germany vs Denmark Prediction, Odds & Starting Lineups for Round of 16 (June 29)
by Brady Trettenero in Soccer News
Updated Jun 29, 2024 · 12:01 AM PDT
Oct 17, 2023; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Germany midfielder Leon Goretzka (8) looks to pass against Mexico during the second half at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Lewis-USA TODAY SportsGermany topped Group A with 2 wins and a draw, scoring 8 goalsDenmark finished 2nd in Group C after 3 consecutive drawsThe Germans are heavily favored to advance to the quarterfinals
A tasty matchup is on tap in Dortmund on Saturday as tournament hosts Germany take on a stingy Denmark side in the first knockout round of Euro 2024.
Germany won Group A in style, kicking off with a 5-1 thrashing of Scotland before blanking Hungary 2-0. Die Mannschaft drew 1-1 with Switzerland in their group finale, with super-sub Niclas Füllkrug heading home a stoppage-time equalizer.
The defensive-minded Danes drew all three of their group games by a combined score of 2-2. They opened with a 1-1 result against Slovenia, drew England by the same score, then played Serbia to a goalless stalemate to claim second in Group C.
The three-way Germany vs Denmark odds favor a win for the hosts inside 90 minutes, but Denmark’s backline will provide a stiff test.
Germany vs Denmark Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | -300 | Over 2.5 (+108) |
| Denmark | +290 | Under 2.5 (-130) |
| Draw | +280 | N/A |
Germany is listed at -300 to win in regulation, with Denmark at +500 and the draw priced at +280. You can also get Germany to win in regulation on the three-way line at +165.
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Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. See our collection of the top Euro 2024 betting sites for more odds.
The Germans opened the tournament as joint-favorites in the Euro winner odds and remain co-chalk at +350 alongside Spain. Denmark are +3300 longshots to lift the trophy.
There’s not much head-to-head history to draw from here. The teams last met in a June 2021 friendly that finished 1-1. Overall, Germany leads the series 15-8-5.
Germany: Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 19 | Jun 23, 2024 | Neutral | D 1-1 |
| Hungary | 37 | Jun 19, 2024 | Neutral | W 2-0 |
| Scotland | 40 | Jun 14, 2024 | Neutral | W 5-1 |
| Greece | 52 | Jun 7, 2024 | Home | W 2-1 |
| Ukraine | 24 | Jun 3, 2024 | Home | D 0-0 |
| Netherlands | 7 | Mar 26, 2024 | Home | W 2-1 |
| France | 2 | Mar 23, 2024 | Away | W 2-0 |
| Austria | 25 | Nov 21, 2023 | Away | L 2-0 |
| Turkey | 39 | Nov 18, 2023 | Home | L 2-3 |
| Mexico | 15 | Oct 17, 2023 | Away | D 2-2 |
The host nation enters this clash unbeaten in seven games (5-2-0). Their eight goals scored is tops in the tournament and they’ve conceded just twice.
However, they failed to impress in three pre-tournament friendlies (1-1-1), including a 1-0 home loss to Iceland. Still, they managed to generate 10.1 expected goals over those three matches.
Young star Jamal Musiala has been the standout attacker with two goals on five shots (three on target). Veteran midfielder Toni Kroos has been masterful, completing 95.7% of his passes in the group stage. As a team, Germany registered the most shots (57) and shots on target (19) in the group stage.
Denmark: Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia | 33 | Jun 25, 2024 | Neutral | D 0-0 |
| England | 4 | Jun 20, 2024 | Neutral | D 1-1 |
| Slovenia | 57 | Jun 16, 2024 | Neutral | D 1-1 |
| Norway | 41 | Jun 8, 2024 | Home | W 3-1 |
| Sweden | 20 | Jun 5, 2024 | Home | W 2-1 |
| Faroe Islands | 125 | Mar 26, 2024 | Home | W 2-0 |
| Switzerland | 12 | Mar 23, 2024 | Home | D 0-0 |
| Northern Ireland | 58 | Nov 20, 2023 | Away | L 2-0 |
| Slovenia | 57 | Nov 17, 2023 | Home | W 2-1 |
| San Marino | 211 | Oct 17, 2023 | Away | W 2-1 |
The Danes are unbeaten in six but four of those results were draws, including their last three. They found the net just twice in group play and managed only seven total shots on target.
Christian Eriksen and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg lead the team with 10 and six shot attempts, respectively, but both have just one goal between them. Fullback Joakim Mæhle has been a defensive force with nine interceptions, four blocked shots, and four tackles won.
In the group stage, Denmark had the second-fewest attacks (103) and the lowest passing accuracy (76%) of the 16 teams that advanced.
Germany vs Denmark Projected Lineups
Germany (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Klostermann, Ginter, Rüdiger, Raum; Kimmich, Goretzka; Hofmann, Musiala, Sané; Havertz
Denmark (4-2-3-1): Schmeichel; Andersen, Christensen, Kjær, Mæhle; Højbjerg, Delaney; Skov Olsen, Eriksen, Braithwaite; Wind
Füllkrug could replace Havertz up top for Germany after his late heroics against the Swiss. Denmark will likely stick with the same XI that performed well defensively against Serbia.
Germany vs Denmark Prediction
The Germans are in dazzling form and I expect them to be too much for Denmark over 90 minutes. That said, I don’t see this being a high-scoring affair. Denmark’s sturdy defense will make things difficult, but Germany’s superior depth, especially off the bench, should see them through.
Back Germany to win in regulation in a game that sees under 2.5 goals scored. For a juicier moneyline play, take a flier on a 1-0 correct score in favor of Die Mannschaft.
Germany vs Denmark Picks:
Germany three-way moneyline (-165)Under 2.5 goals (-130)Germany to win 1-0 (+550)
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