Jake Paul vs Mike Perry Props to Bet: ‘Problem Child’ via Decision

Aug 5, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Jake Paul reacts after the win against Nate Diaz in a boxing match at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY SportsJake Paul vs Mike Perry prop bets are rolling in as we approach fight night on SaturdayWill this fight go the distance? How will it end? We break down the odds and best betsCheck out our Paul vs Perry predictions, full betting preview and analysis below

Jake Paul vs Mike Perry prop bets are popping up left and right ahead of their clash this Saturday, July 20th at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.

The YouTuber-turned-boxer Paul was originally penciled in to face heavyweight legend Mike Tyson, but Tyson withdrew due to illness. In steps bare-knuckle brawler and ex-UFC welterweight Mike Perry on short notice.

The boxing betting odds still heavily favor Paul at around -400, with Perry a +300 underdog. But a deeper look at the prop bets reveals some interesting opportunities for bettors. Let’s dive into the best props and predictions for Saturday’s cruiserweight showdown.

Will Paul vs Perry Go the Distance?

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 19, 2024. Check out available DraftKings promos for Paul vs Perry.

DRAFTKINGSSPORTSBOOK

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly!

LOCK IN PROMOSIGNUP PROMOBET $5GET $150GET PROMO

One of the most popular prop bets for any boxing match is whether the fight will go the full scheduled distance or end inside the limit. For this 8-round bout, oddsmakers strongly favor an early finish, with “No” juiced to -200.

However, I actually lean toward this fight going the distance at +160. While Paul has shown KO power, it’s come against fairly low-level opposition. Perry is as tough as they come, with an incredible chin and only 1 KO loss in MMA and bare-knuckle fighting.

Mike Perry flexes after taking off his "silk pajamas" and making weight 😁 #PaulPerry pic.twitter.com/0rvfuvDGk6

— MMA Fighting (@MMAFighting) July 19, 2024

Perry will bring relentless pressure, which could give Paul some problems, but I expect the YouTuber to use his reach and mobility to stay on the outside and rack up points. He’s gone 8 rounds before and shown the ability to adapt mid-fight.

I don’t see Perry having the boxing skills to seriously trouble Paul or score a stoppage himself. His best path to victory is swarming Paul and making it a dog fight, but Paul is smart enough to avoid those battles.

Prediction:

Fight Goes the Distance – Yes (+160) Jake Paul vs Mike Perry Prediction, Odds, Fight Start Time & How to WatchRead More

Paul vs Perry Method of Victory

Method of Victory	Odds
Jake Paul by KO/TKO/DQ	-130
Jake Paul by Decision	+210
Mike Perry by KO/TKO/DQ	+450
Mike Perry by Decision	+1200

While the oddsmakers favor Paul to win by stoppage, I actually see a lot of value on the YouTube star to win by decision at +210 (32.3% implied probability).

Paul has shown improvements in his boxing, but I question if his power will hold up against an iron-chinned veteran like Perry. He’s still early in his development, and Perry is a massive step up from the likes of AnEsonGib and Nate Robinson.

I expect Paul to fight a smart, measured fight, using his jab and movement to frustrate Perry and pile up points. He’s gone the distance in four of his 10 fights, so he knows how to maintain his composure and stick to a gameplan.

Perry will be there all night brawling, but I don’t see him winning minutes cleanly, and it’s unlikely he catches Paul with a fight-ending shot. A wide decision win for the A-side is the most probable outcome to me.

Pick:

Jake Paul by Decision (+210)

Jake Paul vs Mike Perry Round Betting

Jake Paul Wins in…	Odds
Round 1	+1000
Round 2	+1000
Round 3	+900
Round 4	+850
Round 5	+850
Round 6	+1000
Round 7	+1200
Round 8	+1400

Since I’m predicting a decision win for Paul, I don’t have a strong lean on the round betting props. That said, if you do fancy a Paul stoppage, rounds 5-8 offer the best value.

Perry has never been stopped due to strikes, so it’s more likely Paul wears him down with an accumulation of punches rather than one big shot. The +850 on round 5 and the ascending odds from there look appealing.

For a longshot, Paul in round 7 at +1200 is intriguing. We’ve seen him fade late in fights before, and maybe Perry’s pressure could force him to empty the gas tank for a late stoppage. But overall, this feels like a true pick’em in the round props.

Lean:

Paul in Round 7 (+1200)

Other Paul vs Perry Props to Watch

A few other prop bets caught my eye:

Jake Paul wins by unanimous decision (+250) – My projected outcome at solid oddsFight ends in 1st minute of Round 1 (+3000) – Unlikely but fun $5 lottery ticket bet

 

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

BET $5 & GET $150 INSTANTLY!

CLAIM OFFER

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

BET $5 & GET $200 IF YOUR BET WINS!

CLAIM OFFER

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

GET UP TO $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS!

CLAIM OFFER

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

GET UP TO $1,000 BACK – ON CAESARS!

CLAIM OFFER

BET365 SPORTSBOOK

BET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS!

CLAIM OFFER

FANATICS SPORTSBOOK

GET A $200 BET MATCH FOR 5 STRAIGHT DAYS!

CLAIM OFFER