Marlins vs Phillies Series Odds & Predictions for NL Wild Card

Sep 12, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) and starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) take the field for action against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY SportsThe Phillies are heavily favored over the Marlins in the NL Wild CardThe Marlins have the worst road record of any team in the 2023 MLB playoffsBelow, see the Marlins vs Phillies Game 1 odds and predictions plus the MIA vs PHI Wild Card series price

The Philadelphia Phillies (90-72, 49-32 home) start their quest to repeat as as National League champions with a best-of-three Wild Card series against the Miami Marlins (84-78, 38-43 away), on Tuesday, Oct. 3, at 8:00 pm ET.

Philadelphia has the shortest odds to advance among all eight teams participating in the Wild Card Round. With ace Zack Wheeler on the mound for Game 1, they are similarly short favorites to take an early and hugely-important lead in the best-of-three affair.

Marlins vs Phillies Series Odds

The Phillies enter Game 1 as -168 favorites to win the opener, and even bigger -200 chalk to win the best-of-three series in the MLB odds. All games in the series will take place in Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park. Last year – the first with the current best-of-three Wild Card format – the team that won the first game went onto win all four series. Only one of the four went to a third game.

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The winner of this series will advance in the MLB playoff bracket to face the #1-seeded Atlanta Braves, who finished with the best record in the majors during the regular season (104-58). Atlanta is a significant favorite in the World Series odds, while the Phillies sit sixth (+1300) and Marlins last among the 12 playoff teams (+3500).

The NL Pennant odds are similarly unkind to the Marlins, who are making just their second postseason appearance since winning the World Series in 2003. Miami’s +1400 odds are the longest of the six NL playoff teams, while Philadelphia’s +600 sit third behind the Braves (+145) and Dodgers (+200).

Probable Pitchers: Miami vs Philadelphia

Though Tuesday’s MLB lineups have not officially been released, the Game 1 starters are known for both teams. The visiting Marlins will give 26-year-old Jesus Luzardo the start, while the Phillies will send 33-year-old ace Zack Wheeler to the mound.

Jesus Luzardo vs Zack Wheeler

LuzardoVSWheeler

Wheeler saw his first playoff action last year during Philadelphia’s run to the NL Pennant. The 2021 Cy Young runner-up had an excellent 2.78 ERA over a team-leading 35.2 IP in last year’s postseason (which was ten more innings than any other pitcher on the team).

Luzardo pitched in two postseasons with Oakland, recording an ugly 5.91 ERA in 10.2 innings pitched. This start would have gone to Sandy Alcantara, but the reigning NL Cy Young-winner is on the shelf with a forearm strain, moving everyone else up a spot in the Miami rotation. Luzardo’s over/under in Tuesday’s MLB player props sits at 5.5, while Wheeler is one higher at 6.5.

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Marlins vs Phillies Series Prediction

Wheeler proved his playoff bona fides last year when he finally got to make an appearance in the postseason at the age of 32. While his surface-level stats have taken a step back this year (3.61 ERA vs 2.82 last year), his xERA is almost identical (3.18 vs 3.10) and his strikeout rate is the exact same.

There is a ton of history between Wheeler and the lineup division-rival Miami will be fielding. All told, Marlin hitters are slashing  .250/.289/.396 against Wheeler in 144 at-bats. While they’ve recorded their share of base hits, there hasn’t been much damage. Only four of their 36 hits off Wheeler have been home runs and there are only 14 RBI among the group.

The Phillies’ numbers off Luzardo aren’t any better (.211/.247/.355) but the sample size is roughly half (76 at-bats) and Luzardo has stark home-road splits (like Miami, itself). He put up a 3.07 ERA at home and a concerning 4.48 ERA on the road. In his only start in Philadelphia this season, he surrendered eight hits, a walk, and three runs over six innings while striking out just five.

Miami has the worst road record of any team in the 2023 MLB playoffs. Expect that trend to continue on Tuesday and the Phillies to breeze past a Miami team that’s not quite ready for primetime.

Marlins vs Phillies Series Pick: Phillies (-200)

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