Below are the best MLB home run prop bets for Sunday, August 4.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Royce Lewis (+330), Byron Buxton (+300) & Trevor Larnach (+500)
Chris Flexen is a pitcher we like to fade whenever we get the chance. In his last start against the Royals, he didn’t allow a single home run for the first time since June 6. There has only been one instance where Flexen has gone back-to-back starts without allowing a homer, and that was at the beginning of May when he faced the Nationals and Rays, who both rank in the bottom five in home runs against right-handed hitters.
On the other hand, the Twins are one of the best teams against right-handed pitchers, hitting 99 dingers, which is eighth-best in the league. They also rank inside the top five in ISO, SLG%, wOBA and wRC+.
Among players with at least 80 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, the Twins’ Royce Lewis ranks first in the league in ISO (.413). Ahead of guys like Shohei Ohtani (.388), Aaron Judge (.383) Marcell Ozuna (.299) and Gunnar Henderson (.286).
Byron Buxton also ranks inside the top 25 with an ISO of .255.
Buxton has 11 career at-bats against Flexen and has collected eight hits €” four doubles and two home runs.
Flexen tends to gravitate toward the fastball and cutter when facing opposing right-handed hitters, which sets up well for these three power-hitting bats. Lewis and Buxton have an ISO over .300 against the fastball and cutter.
While Trevor Larnach’s ISO isn’t as high as that of his teammates, he still has a respectable ISO of .280 against the fastball and .250 against the cutter. A nice little side note: All 11 of Lanrach’s home runs have come off right-handed pitchers.
Heliot Ramos (+480) & Tyler Fitzgerald (+440)
Carson Spiers is on the mound for the Reds. His 4-2 record and 3.42 ERA look halfway decent, we are selling high on Spiers in today’s matchup against the Giants.
The Reds’ right-hander is coming off arguably his best start of the season, blanking the Cubs while striking out four over five innings. Before this last start, Spiers gave up three or more earned runs in his previous five games while allowing five home runs.
Once the opposing lineup flips and he starts going through it for the second time, he gets in trouble. First time through the lineup opponents are hitting .215 with a SLG% of .333. The second time through opponents are hitting .295 while slugging .436.
Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald are in the top third of the lineup and should get two to three at-bats against Spiers, giving them a great shot at hitting a moonshot.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:
- Early NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
- 2024 NFL Futures Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Early 2025 NBA Championship Odds
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions
