I’m heading to the diamond for my favorite prop bets tonight. Below I’ve narrowed in on three players who I believe are primed to touch’em all. Here are my top three home run prop bets for Tuesday’s MLB action.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Riley Greene (+450)
The Tigers have won 11 of their last 14 games. They’ll try to keep things rolling tonight as they open up a series with the division-leading Guardians. Detroit has yet to name a starter, while Cleveland will lean on Xzavion Curry to handle the starting pitching responsibilities. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH.
Curry has made just three starts and five overall appearances this season. The 25-year-old hasn’t looked sharp, going 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over the 17.1-inning sample size. The right-hander has given up four tanks this season, which equates to an HR/9 rate of 2.08. That’s the highest among today’s starting pitchers.
Since Curry hasn’t looked great, I think it’s a great time to fade him against the upward-trending Tigers. Specifically, I’ll be backing Riley Greene to hit a bomb tonight. The outfielder has launched a team-leading 17 homers this season, which is also the 31st-most in the MLB. He’s having a monster month of July, slashing .344/.412/.557 with two home runs. As for the head-to-head numbers, Greene is 3-for-8 (.375) against Curry with three singles. It’s worth a sprinkle on Greene to go deep at +450 tonight.
Aaron Judge (+235)
The Mets broke out the brooms against the Yankees in the first Subway Series of the year, winning the games 9-7 and 12-2. The series shifts to the Bronx, and tonight’s series opener features a pitching matchup between Jose Quintana and Luis Gil. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY.
It’s not an outside-the-box play, but I’m riding with Aaron Judge to hit a bomb tonight. The superstar has been the league’s best hitter this year, leading the MLB in home runs (35), RBI (89) and OPS (1.111). His batting average is .310, which is the eighth-best in the Majors. Judge homered in both games of the Subway Series last month, driving in seven RBI over the two games.
The former MVP and six-time All-Star will face off against Jose Quintana, who’s having a decent year with a 4.13 ERA (54th) and 1.26 WHIP (53rd). One thing that has hindered the southpaw is his inability to keep the ball in the yard. Quintana enters with a 1.50 HR/9 rate, which is the eighth-highest amongst today’s starters. His HR/FB rate is 15.9%, which is the highest amongst his cohort. That’s not a great statistic to have when pitching at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Let’s back Judge to touch’em all tonight. He’s 2-for-6 (.333) against Quintana with a double.
Tyler O’Neill (+260)
The Rockies beat the Red Sox 9-8 in 12 innings last night, issuing Boston their fourth straight defeat. The two sides are back in action tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Cooper Criswell and Ty Blach. First pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET from Coors Field in Denver, CO.
Blach has struggled in his third season with the Rockies, posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over 16 appearances (nine starts). Interestingly, the left-hander’s 5.46 ERA this season is the lowest he’s logged since 2018, so he hasn’t been very effective for over half of a decade. His HR/9 and HR/FB rates are 1.52 and 14.5%, respectively, which are both the seventh-highest marks amongst today’s starters.
I love this matchup for Tyler O’Neill tonight. The left fielder has played in just 72 games in his debut season with Boston, but his 18 homers are second on the team (Devers leads the team with 23). O’Neill has decimated left-handed pitching this season, posting a .318 average while hitting seven bombs over 88 at-bats. He also has Blach’s number, going 1-for-1 (1.000) against him with a home run. O’Neill’s coming off a 3-for-5 night and he also homered twice in the recent series against the Dodgers. He’s a prime candidate to deposit one into the bleachers tonight.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Xzavion Curry (2.08, 17.1 IP)
- Tyler Alexander (2.06, 56.2 IP)
- Landon Knack (1.85, 39.0 IP)
- DJ Herz (1.72, 31.1 IP)
- Jose Berrios (1.59, 119.0 IP)
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