Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Odds, Predictions & Picks for Wimbledon Semifinals

Jul 10, 2024; London, United Kingdom; Lorenzo Musetti of Italy celebrates winning his match against Taylor Fritz of the United States (not shown) on day 10 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY SportsLorenzo Musetti has reached the semifinals of a grand slam for the first time in his career at Wimbledon 2024The young Italian  will have to contend with 24-time major-winner Novak Djokovic at the All England Club on FridaySee the Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic predictions, expert picks, odds for the 2024 Wimbledon semifinals

Tennis fans were certainly expecting at least one Italian to be in the semifinals of Wimbledon, but as the draw panned out, that Italian wasn’t world #1 and pre-tournament favorite Jannick Sinner, but his compatriot Lorenzo Musetti. After a come-from-behind five-set victory over heavily-favored Taylor Fritz in the quarters, the 22-year-old Italian is through to the semifinals at 2024 Wimbledon, which is already his best result at a grand slam.

Unfortunately for the 6’5 Californian, waiting in the semis is Novak Djokovic, winner of a record 24 majors. Though Djokovic has been battling injuries this season, he still enters the semis as a heavy favorite to end Fritz’s run.

Opening Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Odds

Djokovic has opened as a -575 favorite with Musetti coming back as a +425 underdog. The game spread has been set at Djokovic -6.5 with the over/under game total at 34.5.

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Odds as of July 11 at DraftKings. See the available DraftKings promos for Musetti vs Djokovic. 

Djokovic is the current second-favorite to win the tournament in the 2024 Wimbledon odds at +125, just behind Carlos Alcaraz (+110), who meets Daniil Medvedev in the first semifinal on Friday.

Djokovic Returns from Knee Injury with No Signs of Rust

Just five weeks ago, Djokovic was forced to pull out of the French Open ahead of his quarterfinal matchup with Casper Ruud due to a knee injury. He underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus shortly thereafter, yet the 37-year-old has breezed to the semis at SW19. He dropped just two sets in his first four matches (winning 85 games, including tiebreakers, while losing just 54). His 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 obliteration of Holger Rune in the round of 16 appeared to be a warning shot over the bow of everyone else left in the tournament, though the Serbia downplayed its significance afterwards, stating his knee was still a big concern.

Djokovic got a huge break in the quarters when Australian Alex de Minaur was forced to withdraw ahead of the match with a hip injury.

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Musetti Ends Fritz’s Grass-Court Win Streak

Coming off a title on the grass at Eastbourne, Taylor Fritz had picked up right where he left off at the All England Club. He dropped just one set in his first three matches against Christopher O’Connell, Arthur Rinderknech, and Alejandro Tabilo before coming back from two sets down to oust #4 Alexander Zverev (4-6, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-3) in the round of 16. His win streak on grass stood at eight as he matched up with Musetti as a heavy favorite in Wednesday’s quarterfinal.

Fritz appeared to be in full control after going up a set and a break, but the Italian broke back immediately en route to a 7-6 second-set win that propelled him to a five-set victory over an ailing Fritz, whose shoulder was clearly bothering him in a lopsided final set (3-6, 7-6, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1).

Musetti’s career record against Djokovic is a concerning 1-5 overall, 1-3 on clay and 0-2 on hard court; they have never met on grass. Musetti will take some positives out of their last meeting at the 2024 French Open, a five-set thriller that lasted into the wee hours of the morning but ultimately witnessed the Italian run out of gas (7-5, 6-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-0).

Djokovic vs Musetti Picks & Predictions

Djokovic has looked surprisingly spry and rejuvenated roughly a month after knee surgery but if you watched him against Francisco Cerundolo at the French Open, you’ll be wary of taking too strong a position on the legendary Serbian, who’s been putting his body through the ringer for over 20 years.

I wouldn’t take anything Djokovic, the ultimate gamesman, says at face value. So when he claims that his knee remains a concern, I don’t necessarily buy it. But Musetti has made great strides in his career over the last two months, and he nearly beat Djokovic the last time they met.  Musetti reached the final on the grass at the Queen’s Club just before Wimbledon, beating Alex de Minaur (1-6, 6-4, 6-2) in the process before losing to Tommy Paul in the final (6-1, 7-6).

He still struggles to find consistency and maintain his best over the course of a five-set match, but his best is on par with anyone these days, and I trust he’ll find it at some point in the semifinals against a less-than-full-speed Djokovic.

Musetti +2.5 sets (-140)Musetts +2.5 games in 1st set (-165)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Wimbledon picks: 2-1 (+0.76 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise. 

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